Green Ammonia Supply Chains for Long-Distance Renewable Energy Trade: A Simulated Techno- Economic Assessment

This article presents a simulated empirical study in chemical engineering, energy economics, and maritime supply- chain analysis. The scenario matrix contained 144 simulated supply-chain cases combining renewable cost, plant utilization, export distance, and end-use pathway. A simulated supply-chain model represented renewable electricity generation, electrolytic hydrogen production, nitrogen separation, Haber-Bosch ammonia synthesis, storage, port handling, ocean shipping, and optional ammonia cracking. Three export distances and four renewable-electricity cost scenarios were evaluated. Capital recovery, conversion efficiency, transport fuel use, boil-off-equivalent handling losses, and financing sensitivity were included. No real commercial project data were used. Direct local hydrogen use was the lowest-cost option when demand was near the production site, but green ammonia became increasingly competitive as transport distance increased and high-pressure hydrogen logistics were penalized. In the base export case, synthesized ammonia added 28% to production cost but reduced long-distance transport cost sufficiently to narrow the delivered-cost gap. Electricity price and utilization factor were the strongest cost drivers. All numerical values, assignments, observations, and study outcomes are simulated for methodological illustration. No real participants, organizations, field sites, laboratories, or commercial systems were studied. The paper integrates current literature with a transparent empirical-style design and emphasizes reliability, uncertainty, implementation constraints, and the need for real-world validation before operational use.